Accuracy of Groundhog Day Predictions
Accuracy of Groundhog Day Predictions
http://itotd.com/articles/448/
Here in the U.S., February 2 is Groundhog Day. On that day, groundhog "Punxsutawney Phil" emerges to greet the day. If he sees his shadow, that means six more weeks of winter. If not, spring is just around the corner.
This article is a thoughtful and entertaining exploration of the question, "How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?" Share it with your kids to help them develop their abilities to think mathematically about real-world questions. For example, mathematically, how would we define a correct prediction? Are Phil's predictions better than you would get just flipping a coin every year?
Finally, if it seems to you that Phil always seems to see his shadow, you're right - see this page:
http://ona.cabe.k12.wv.us/paux.html
It shows he sees his shadow much more often than not.
More Math for Kids
posted by Karen Cole @ 10:44 AM
1 Comments:
I agree, Naomi! The 94% figure tells you nothing about how accurate his predictions are. It just tells you that the groundhog nearly always sees his shadow. So if you were going to make a bet on just that much, in the long run you'd make money always predicting a sunny day on groundhog day.
As far as the accuracy goes, the other article explains more about why it's problematic to calculate - for example, what constitutes an "early spring?" or what happens if you get some spring weather and then more winter weather? Apparently, people have generated a list of outcomes and calculated the accuracy of the prediction. I tried to find an article by someone who had defined these constraints and done the actual calculation, but I failed. Maybe someone else will have more luck.
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